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ACC Basketball Betting Preview: January 14th

The weather outside it cold and so are these picks.

NCAA Basketball: Florida State at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

After a 2-5 week, we’re staring at an uphill battle, five games under .500 for the year. It may be time for you to just take the opposite of these picks and print money. That’s up to you, but I like these eight games to turn things around.

Miami Hurricanes @ NC State Wolfpack
KP: NC State -4, O/U 156
Draftkings: NC State -3.5, O/U152

I’m not quite ready to buy this Wolfpack team. Coming into this matchup with Miami, NC State has won two in a row. A big win over rival Duke and a nice away win at Virginia Tech. With the Hokies struggling, I’m wondering how good that win will really turn out to be. I like Miami this year. They’ve lost twice all season and picked up the win over the ‘Pack in Coral Gables already this season. I like them getting points, even on the road in a matchup of evenly matched teams at worst.

Pick: Miami +3.5

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville +15, O/U 145
Draftkings: Louisville +12.5, O/U 146

A couple weeks ago, I started to believe that Louisville spreads were beginning to get a bit too high, and while I still like fading the Cardinals, the points are hard to take. However, they have shown that they can score. They’ve scored at least 69 points in each of their last three ACC games and I don’t think North Carolina’s defense is anything to write home about. So if North Carolina is able to win comfortably as the spread suggests, I like this to go over.

Pick: Over 146

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
KP: Georgia Tech +2, O/U 142
Draftkings: Georgia Tech +3.5, O/U 141.5

After starting the ACC season 4-0, Pitt has cooled of a bit dropping their last two to Clemson and Duke. While those two teams might prove to be two of the better squads in the ACC, I think the Panthers may have gotten out a little too far over their skis. I have trouble laying the 3.5 with Pitt, so it’s going to be a play on the under. Georgia Tech likes to muck it up and Pitt will be ok with that tempo. Both teams have been scoring right around 70, so this under won’t be for the feint of heart, but I still like it more than rooting for “not so good” teams to score.

Pick: Under 141.5

Virginia Cavaliers @ Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State +10, O/U 136
Draftkings: Florida State +9.5 O/U 131.5

I generally prefer to bet Virginia totals, in part because the public can’t stomach games in 60s and they bet overs when the books set them where they should be. However, this year’s Virginia squad is a bit more unpredictable on the defensive end giving me less confidence that they can squeeze opponents like in the past. As much as it pains me, I like Florida State to cover. The Hoos have typically struggled in Tallahassee, you could argue mostly because the Seminoles are historically good. And while they aren’t as good this season, it’s still a tough spot for Virginia. A win and they’re supposed to win, while a loss is a bad look. Florida State will be competitive, just competitive enough to keep this game in single digits.

Pick: Florida State +9.5

Duke Blue Devils @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson -1, O/U 141
Draftkings: Clemson -1.5, O/U 141.5

Can we trust Clemson yet? The Tigers have surprised in the ACC this year and now get a visit from Duke. Even with Duke struggling, this is still a statement game. As Pitt found out earlier this week, Duke can still be Duke. The Clemson crowd will be pumped, but will it be enough? While this game figures to be played at a slower tempo, both teams still like to run when given the chance. As long as the game stays close, I like scoring so am looking at the over.

Pick: Over 141.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Syracuse Orange
KP: Syracuse -6, O/U 140
Draftkings: Syracuse -5.5, O/U 140

Last week, I continued my theory that I’ll always be wrong on Syracuse, therefore I wrote up what I thought would happen, then just took the opposite. Well, it turns out I was right. Therefore, I was wrong. Oh well. Syracuse continues to confound me. This matchup SHOULD feature lights out scoring, but Notre Dame just hasn’t been themselves this season. It’s really simple, the game will feature both teams getting a single shot each possession. There won’t be a lot of turnovers. If Notre Dame hits the threes Syracuse will let them take, the game will soar over the total. If not, we could see this game settle in the 120s just like their matchup a couple weeks ago.

Pick: Under 140

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Boston College Eagles
KP: Boston College +3, O/U 141
Draftkings: Boston College +2.5, O/U 139.5

Boston College is a bit better at home, as evidenced by their one point loss to Duke a week ago and Wake Forest is better at home than they are on the road. Regardless, I like the Demon Deacons to beat teams they’re better than, and they’re better than the Eagles. I don’t think the 2.5 is enough to take the home team so I’m going to lay it with Wake Forest.

Pick: Wake Forest -2.5

Season Total: ATS (3-9-0), O/U (12-11-0), Total (15-20-0)