Last week, I told you to do the opposite of whatever I was backing. If you followed directions, you continued to print money. A 1-3 week now has me 11 games under .500 at 15-26. Luckily for me, I have seven more games this week to climb out of the hole, or continue to dig deeper.
I lean towards taking the points in this mismatch, since 21 is a lot to be laying on the road. However Florida State has been rolling teams and the Deacs have been pretty bad. I could see a scenario where Florida State jumps out to a 21-0 lead and never looks back. Wake Forest will be on the scoreboard eventually, and could turn out to be something like 38-17. So I’m looking over.
Pick: Over 52.5
Despite beating Georgia Tech by 15 last week, I can’t see myself laying points with this Boston College team. The Eagles get things done on the ground, and surprisingly enough the Huskies can keep that somewhat in check. UConn has only scored 14 and 7 points in their two games against ACC competition and there’s no reason to think they score much more on the Eagles. The run games will be out in force keeping the clock going and the scoring to a minimum.
Pick: Under 50
Here’s a game where the defenses take center stage and the offenses have been massive disappointments. Neither of these feature any quick strike ability, so it will be a series of long drives and given that NC State has a negative EPA per both rush and pass, they won’t have much success doing that. It’ll be ugly unless you like defense.
Pick: Under 44.5
Outside of whatever that was against Georgia Tech, the Miami Hurricanes have been very good on offense this season. Even without quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, they put up 28 points on a really good Clemson defense. Van Dyke will be back this week so I expect the Hurricanes to score on a Virginia defense that is still susceptible to the big play. Virginia has shown they can be competitive against most teams this season and I think this one stays close to the 18.5 spread. As long as Virginia doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers like last week, I think they can score with the Hurricanes.
Pick: Over 47.5
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Pitt +20.5; Over/Under 45
Notre Dame had a week off after their rivalry win over USC and have Clemson on deck. Meanwhile, Pitt had the win over Wake until it was determined quarterback Christian Veilleux started his slide just short of the first down marker on a rush that would have ended the game. Wake Forest got the ball back and scored the game winning touchdown as time expired. Being on the wrong side of that rough call (called correctly but not within the intent of the rule) hurt the bankroll, but I digress. Pitt is going to struggle against a stout Notre Dame defense, but the Panther’s should do enough to stifle a pretty good Irish attack. The total is really low, so I’m going to look for Pitt to stay within the margin.
Pick: Pitt +20.5
This game opened at UL -4 and the line has moved to -6 suggesting Duke’s Riley Leonard is unlikely to go or at least be limited. I don’t care, this game comes down to Duke’s defense. Louisville’s offense in predicated on the big play, something Duke will put a stop to. I like Duke to muck it up and do just enough to keep this game really close.
Pick: Duke +6
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech +12; Over/Under 64.5
Like clockwork, the Tar Heels dropped a game they shouldn’t have. Fortunately for us, it was against our Hoos when they decided to revert back into their typical selves. After starting the season strong, and pulling the upset over Miami, the Yellow Jackets are “who we thought they were.” I think North Carolina bounces back, come up with some turnovers with Georgia Tech playing from behind, and do enough to cover the number.
Pick: North Carolina -12