At least it wasn’t a losing week. I’ve now managed to get to ten games under five hundred. Follow along and see if I can get it back into the single digits, but as has been the case this season, if you just do the opposite of these every week, you’re making money.
Call me crazy, but I’m going back to the well with Clemson. Sure, they’re 4-4, but this is the most talented 4-4 team I’ve ever seen, especially on defense. They’re no stranger to Sam Hartman and as long as they limit the explosive plays, they’ll keep it close. Notre Dame made easy work of Pitt last which surprised me given the Panther’s ability to frustrate a quarterback. But that defense has nothing on the Tigers and at home, Clemson takes one step to salvaging a disappointing season.
Pick: Clemson +3
Earlier in the season, I loved Georgia Tech’s ability to get a back door cover with the pass, but of late, they’ve been utilizing the run to move the ball. The same can be said for a Cavalier team that has played really well since the Bye week. I wanted to go over the total as neither defense is very stingy, but in the end, it’s a lot of points. Both teams run it early and often to keep the clock moving and Virginia’s defense comes up with just enough stops to keep the game from getting way out of hand.
Pick: Under 56
Florida State Seminoles @ Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt +21.5; Over/Under 50
What can you say, I’m a masochist. First the Tigers and now the Panthers. Florida State will roll, but this is just too many points. Pitt is going to have a hard time scoring, but with Miami on deck, the Seminoles struggle out of the gate, pull ahead, and leave Pittsburgh with an easy 2.5 score win.
Pick: Pittsburgh +21.5
Don’t look now, but VaTech has won three of their last four, the only loss being a drubbing at the hands of Florida State. But let’s not get carried away, as those wins were against Pitt, Wake Forest, and Syracuse. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Now they face Louisville, on the road. While I’ve been slow to get behind the Cardinals, this is a really good team. What impresses me is their ability to get off the field on third down. That will go a long way in shutting down an improved Hokie offense and while I expect Louisville to win easily, I’m looking under as opposed to laying the points.
Pick: Under 49
The Wolfpack got their big season win when they beat the Clemson Tigers, but how good is that win actually? We’ll find out when they host the Miami Hurricanes. I’m having trouble with the spread in this one as I still don’t really trust Miami as an upper echelon ACC team and NC State has been a massive disappointment. So I’m leaning the points. Both teams got pick sixes as week ago and NC State added another score on a 72 yard touchdown from KC Concepcion. Without those scores, the Wolfpack struggle to sustain drives and score. Meanwhile Miami isn’t cashing in due to their inability to hold onto the football. Those trends will continue and this one, despite the low total, goes under.
Pick: Under 44