The Virginia Cavaliers avoided a disaster of a loss earlier this week at Louisville. The loss would have been by far their worst loss of the season and easily a Quad 4 loss in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Nevertheless, they prevailed, earned (yet) another Quad 4 victory, and the train moves on.
As a refresher, when the NCAA Tournament committee convenes to set the NCAA Tournament bracket, they use the “NET” rankings to determine who receives the at large bids and seed lines. A team’s NET ranking is comprised of a formula with a whole host of computer numbers incorporated (KenPom, RPI, etc.) and the team’s schedule and results from that year make up the team’s NET Report.
The NET Report is broken up into four “Quadrants.” Quad 1 shows the results of the team’s games at home vs teams ranked 1-30, neutral court games against 1-50, and away games against 1-75. Here’s how the Quads break down:
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home: 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161-357, Neutral 201-357, Away 241-357
Right now the Hoos are 16th in the NET, which is down three spots after Wednesday night’s results. The teams ahead of them are a who’s who of teams that could make the Final Four this year with only St. Mary’s being able to trick the computers which has them 6th in the NET. UVA and Miami are the only ACC team in the Top 30, with Miami at No. 30 currently. Duke follows not far behind at 34 and NC State soon after at 38.
Here is what UVA’s NET Report looked like two weeks ago:
And here is where UVA stands heading into the weekend game with Notre Dame:
The Cavaliers now have a below .500 record in Quad 1 thanks to Duke and Wake Forest falling. The Virginia Tech loss, while at the time didn’t seem so bad, is teetering between a Quad 1 and a Quad 2 game. It is a Quad 1 game for now, but if the Hokies continue to spiral, that could result in UVA’s first Quad 2 loss of the season.
The rest of the season is pretty evenly split with a game in each Quadrant except for Quad 4 because the ACC is bad this season. Five of the ACC’s 15 teams do not have a single Quad 1 victory on their resume and only 9 power conference teams can claim that (thanks Gary Parrish).
Obviously the key over the next two weeks is avoiding disaster. A 4-1 finish to complete a 16-4 ACC record would likely solidify a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament so long as they can at least win a game in Greensboro, but that lone loss cannot come at the hands of BC, Notre Dame, or Louisville.
Ideally, if a loss has to happen, it comes in Chapel Hill, but let’s just hope the Hoos go 5-0 to help the cause.