When you play with fire, you’re bound to get burned at some point. After winning their previous two Quad 4 games (Notre Dame and Louisville) by a combined five points, the Virginia Cavaliers were outclassed by Boston College and suffered their first loss outside of Quad 1 on the season.
Does it sink their NCAA Tournament resume? Not in the least.
Is it concerning? Certainly.
With three games remaining, if UVA wants to remain near the top of the seed lines, they’ll need to avoid another loss outside of Quad 1.
As a refresher, when the NCAA Tournament committee convenes to set the NCAA Tournament bracket, they use the “NET” rankings to determine who receives the at large bids and seed lines. A team’s NET ranking is comprised of a formula with a whole host of computer numbers incorporated (KenPom, RPI, etc.) and the team’s schedule and results from that year make up the team’s NET Report.
The NET Report is broken up into four “Quadrants.” Quad 1 shows the results of the team’s games at home vs teams ranked 1-30, neutral court games against 1-50, and away games against 1-75. Here’s how the Quads break down:
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home: 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161-357, Neutral 201-357, Away 241-357
Right now the Hoos are 21st in the NET, which is down five spots from this time last week and eight spots from where they were heading into the Louisville game. A fairly precipitous drop despite going 2-1.
The Cavaliers remain the top rated ACC team, but are joined in the top 30 by Miami (27) and Duke (29) with NC State just outside the top 30 at 36.
Here is what UVA’s NET Report looked like last week before Notre Dame:
And here is what it looks like now:
Clemson’s fall from grace has made them now a Quad 3 opponent while Wake continues to be just outside another Quad 1 win for UVA.
A win on Saturday in Chapel Hill would do wonders for the postseason resume as it would give UVA an above .500 record in Quad 1.
Last week the NCAA Tournament committee released a preliminary list of the top 16 seeds as it stands now. UVA was the No. 10 overall team and the 2nd highest rated three seed.
For comparison’s sake the three other three seeds: Tennessee, Kansas State, and Iowa State are all undefeated in Quads 3 and 4, but all of them also have losses in Quad 2, which UVA doesn’t have. The argument for those teams over UVA would be in Quad 1 where all of those teams have at least six Quad 1 victories compared to UVA’s 4. Thanks ACC.
UVA’s resume is likely a little closer to the four 4 seeds: Indiana, Xavier, Gonzaga, and Marquette. Indiana is currently No. 20 in the NET with no losses outside the first two quadrants, but is 5-8 in Quad 1 and 5-1 in Quad 2. Gonzaga has an identical 4-4 record in Quad 1, is also undefeated in Quad 2 (5-0), and has a Quad 3 loss. Marquette has seemingly the strongest resume of the bunch with a 5-5 record in Quad 1, a 5-1 record in Quad 2, and 12-0 in Quads 3 and 4. Finally, Xavier is likely the weakest as they have 3 losses outside of Quad 1, including 2 in Quad 3.
If the Hoos want to stay on the 3 line for the NCAA Tournament and virtually assure them a spot in Greensboro on the first weekend, a 3-0 record over the next week would seemingly be key.