Two weeks ago, I felt like the betting board was giving us good opportunities to bet unders. Boy, was I wrong. Still, I salvaged a 3-4 week, but it was ugly there for a minute. Flip to this week and I think there are some matchups that lean toward the over. So, you know what to do.
In the last several weeks, these two teams have been going in completely different directions. For Clemson, they’ve proven that their early start was a bit of a mirage while NC State has proven they’ve been decent all along. The truth is probably somewhere in between, so I think this game is fairly competitive. NC State doesn’t play much defense and will push the pace on offense. So, unless Clemson get’s blown out, I think we’re in store for a lot of points.
Pick: Over 149
It came as little shock that Louisville was able to pick up their first ACC win of the season when they hosted Georgia Tech. Now in the return trip, we have the Yellow Jackets laying the points. I have a hard time backing this team against anyone much less as over a two possession favorite. Still, I can’t back the Cardinals either. This one should be sloppy and Louisville will turn the ball over even though Georgia Tech won’t force them. Neither team is good from three, nor does either team get to the line. It could turn out that neither is able to play any defense, but I’m going to bank on a slow, grimy game with neither team able to get in a groove offensively.
Pick: Under 139
Normally I lean the under in games with a total in the mid 150’s as there’s just so much variance when you start getting up into numbers that big. But, much like Clemson in Raleigh, as long as Florida State can hang early, I expect plenty of points. Miami won’t let up and will want to run. Florida State will let them. Hopefully they can do their part as well.
Pick: Over 154.5
My inability to cap Syracuse games is well documented in this space. Instead of really digging deep to find sometime predictable in the least predictable team in college basketball, I’m going to go simple. Pitt takes 44% of their field goals from there, Syracuse allows 46% of their opponents field goals from three. I think Pitt makes a bunch of threes at home, Syracuse is able to keep, and this total goes over.
Pick: Over 145
For those who appreciate predictive measures, Wednesday’s result in Chestnut Hill came as no surprise. Over the last month, Virginia hasn’t played particularly well, but when a small sample is defined by binary wins and losses, it can be easy to overlook. But, you know who doesn’t perform well in predictive measures or results? North Carolina. It was the wins and losses crowd that over hyped the Heel’s coming into the season after their tournament run masked a team that wasn’t all that great a year. I worry about North Carolina dominating the Hoos on the boards, but unless the Heels suddenly get hot from three, I still like Virginia in this matchup. I’ll take the points with the better team despite being on the road.
Pick: Virginia +3
Louisville and Florida State have gotten a lot of headlines for ACC futility this year, but Notre Dame might be the worst of the bunch. Wake Forest has done a really good job of not only winning games at home, but winning by margin. My only worry is that there aren’t enough possessions for the Deacons to really pull away, but I think they win comfortably.
Pick: Wake Forest -7
All season, you can almost count on VaTech showing up in big games and letting up in games they should win. They’ll be up for this one, but will it be enough? Duke is a very different team at home, giving up far fewer points and I feel like Virginia Tech is only able to generate energy when they’re in Cassell or JPJ. Perhaps that energy travels to Durham, but I don’t think so. Dairiq Whitehead has been blistering from three since his return from injury, but I look for Duke to slow down the tempo, and this game to go under.
Pick: Under 142.5
Season Total: ATS (8-11-0), O/U (21-23-0), Total (29-34-0)