Since losing two straight to Miami and Houston in mid-December, the Virginia Cavaliers have been on a tear winning nine of ten including the current seven game winning streak they’re on. They have just nine ACC regular season games remaining and control their own destiny to win yet another ACC regular season title.
But what does their NCAA Tournament resume look like?
The seven game winning streak has resulted in 1 Quad 1 win, 3 Quad 2 wins, 2 Quad 3 wins, and a Quad 4 win. It would be better if there were more Quad 2 or 1 wins, but that is life in the ACC right now.
As a refresher, when the NCAA Tournament committee convenes to set the NCAA Tournament bracket, they use the “NET” rankings to determine who receives the at large bids and seed lines. A team’s NET ranking is comprised of a formula with a whole host of computer numbers incorporated (KenPom, RPI, etc.) and the team’s schedule and results from that year make up the team’s NET Report.
The NET Report is broken up into four “Quadrants.” Quad 1 shows the results of the team’s games at home vs teams ranked 1-30, neutral court games against 1-50, and away games against 1-75. Here’s how the Quads break down:
Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quad 2: Home: 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quad 4: Home 161-357, Neutral 201-357, Away 241-357
Right now the Hoos are 13th in the NET, which is up from 15th at this point last week. The teams ahead of them are a who’s who of teams that could make the Final Four this year with only St. Mary’s being able to trick the computers which has them 6th in the NET.
Here is what UVA’s NET Report looked like heading into the weekend game with Boston College:
And here is what it currently looks like after the Boston College win and the road win at Syracuse:
Michigan and Wake Forest’s finishes to the season might be the difference between UVA being a 2 or a 3 seed. If the two finish strong and continue to give UVA Quad 1 victories, it would greatly enhance their resume instead of just two more Quad 2 victories.
As has been said the last few weeks: the Cavaliers just need to avoid the bad losses. Thus far they’ve handled their business against bad teams, but a loss to one of those bad teams in Quads 3 or 4 would do some serious damage on the resume.
The good news is UVA can greatly improve their resume in the next week when they travel to Blacksburg for a solid Quad 1 game against a struggling Virginia Tech team and a Quad 2 game when they host a scorching NC State team.