We were a missed front end of a one and one in the Miami/Pitt game from having another winning week, but them’s the breaks. Now, just like the majority of the ACC, it’s time to go on a tournament run and see if we can close out the year on a high note. The Virginia Cavaliers don’t tip off til Thursday, but there’s still plenty of action to get in on before then.
Don’t look now, but Georgia Tech has won six of their last eight including road wins over Syracuse and Boston College in their last two. I still have a hard time backing them, much less laying two points against anybody. On talent alone, the wrong team is favored, though I do worry that Florida State checked out months ago. Still, in a neutral site game, give me the better roster, give me the better coach, and give me the points.
Pick: Florida State +2
BC what are you doing? As soon as I profess my “tepid like” for you, you lose…at home…by eight…to Georgia Tech. Not only did they lose, they played terribly. Speaking of terrible, the season can’t end soon enough for Louisville. Kenny Payne needs a reset. I think they’ll be fine long term, but all season I’ve been looking for that moment, for a spark that tells me this team can do something and it’s just not there. While I don’t trust BC to cover anything anymore, I can’t trust Louisville for a full 40 minutes. Neither of these teams like to get up and down the court and outside of a couple feint moments, neither is very good offensively either. So, I look for a slog and a total under.
Pick: Under 135.5
Normally, I’d shy away from an over in a matchup of teams with slow tempos, but not this one. The key here is neither of these teams particularly like to play defense. Notre Dame has always been a team that would muck it up, but not this season. They’ve given up 70 points or more in 16 of their 20 conference games this year and given up 80 or more in half of those. Virginia Tech to their credit generally plays the tempo of the team they’re playing. They’re still deliberate on offense, but they can score with anyone in the conference putting up 71 or more in 14 of 20 games and going over 80 five times. The one thing to keep this game under would be a blowout by either side, but as long as the game stays in the single digits, I think the over is the play.
Pick: Over 144
Season Total: ATS (11-14-0), O/U (25-27-0), Total (36-41-0)