The ACC brass had a great day yesterday with all three local teams advancing setting up a quarterfinal Thursday will Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, and NC State all playing in each of the four games. For me, it looked like the day was going to be a waste after Wake Forest missed covering by the hook and the Pitt/Georgia Tech game sailed over the total. But a UNC over and an NC State cover salvaged a 2-2 day. Now, if I can just run the table I can get to one game over .500 for the season.
*For the record this will be published after the start of the Noon game. I’m taking the over 158.
Day 3 Betting Preview running behind.— Ryan Reese (@HoosOn_First) March 9, 2023
Wake/Miami Under 158 for those looking to fade me https://t.co/t9FSuYznbu
Duke got the eight point win back in early January in a game where Pitt had a 12 point lead midway through the first half. It was the type of game that really showed me where Pitt was in relation to the top tier of the ACC. Since dropping back to back games against Miami and UVA, Duke has reeled off six wins in a row and you could make the argument they’re playing some of the best basketball of their season. Pitt showed against Miami on Saturday, they’re not ready to win a big game when there’s pressure on the line. It’s a lot of points, but I’m taking the Blue Devils.
Pick: Duke -6
Just over two weeks ago, these two teams played a 67 possession game combining for 134 points. Virginia only played two other games with that many possessions in regulation in ACC play all year. I don’t see this game being played any quicker. It’s a defacto home game for the ‘Heels, but given Wake Forest, Duke, and NC State fans will also be in the building there may be more non-UNC support than folks cheering for the Tar Heels. Virginia can’t run with UNC, but I’m not sure this Heel team is trying. As long as they don’t go 10-22 from three again, I think this one can stay under 130.
Pick: Under 129.5
This line has been all over the place since earlier this morning, I was writing up Clemson +3, but here at a Pick, I’m gonna take the Wolfpack. The Tigers got the best of them twice by almost 40 points combined in the two game and while I don’t prescribe to the “it’s hard to beat a team three times” ridiculousness I like the Wolfpack here in this one. They’ll have to keep Hunter Tyson (26 combined rebounds in the two matchups) off the boards and DJ Burns out of foul trouble. But if they do, I think they can advance to the Semifinals.
Pick: NC State Pick
Season Total: ATS (12-14-0), O/U (25-29-0), Total (37-43-0)