After a 1-4 start to the season, going 3-4 isn’t all that bad. Right? Right? Anyways, onto another seven game slate.
The Tar Heels have started ACC play scoring 70 points or less and giving up under 57 points in each of their first three games. Could UNC be an under team? No, no they’re not. Those games were on the road and two of those three failed to reach 69 possessions, the only two times that’s happened for Carolina this season. Those games also came against teams ranking in the bottom 250 in defensive length of possession. And while Carolina ranking 304th in defensive possession length jumps off the page, this team isn’t suddenly a turtle. Being back at home, playing a Syracuse team ranked 18th in defensive possession length and 264th at giving up offensive rebounds, I see points. The only way this goes under is if Syracuse doesn’t do their part.
Pick: Over 157
Louisville got their win over Miami, but that might say more about Miami than it does about Louisville. Regardless, Louisville is giving up points. The only question becomes, do they score? Coming off a loss to UNC, the Wolfpack is looking to stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation and will get the comfortable win.
Pick: NC State -7.5
Here’s a game perfect for a same game parlay on Draftkings Sportsbook. If you like Virginia, take the points and the under. If you like Wake Forest, lay the points and take the over. There have been way too many defensive lapses for this year’s Virginia squad and they don’t have the offense to make up for it. If Wake gets running, this one gets out of hand as the games against Notre Dame and NC State did. However, I think after the break, Virginia gets back to its roots and comes out with a spirited defensive effort and that’s enough to keep the game close.
Pick: Virginia +6
Florida State Seminoles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame +1, O/U 133
Draftkings: Notre Dame +1.5, O/U 135
After a year at the bottom of the ACC, Florida State isn’t necessarily back, but they are playing better basketball. They don’t have the same talent as two and three years ago, but the depth is there, with the Seminoles being able to throw multiple athletic lineups at teams. Notre Dame is better at home, but I still think the ‘Noles get the win.
Pick: Florida State -1.5
Boston College is making me look bad running teams out of the gym putting up 80+ each time out. This week they run into a mucker in the Clemson Tigers. Clemson needs this game, and I don’t particularly think the outcome is close. The pace will be slower than we’re used to seeing out of BC and on the road Quinten Post and company won’t be able to get it going.
Pick: Under 151
I generally don’t like laying big numbers, but Duke gets their revenge at home. The Blue Devils will score and in Cameron they put the clamps on the Yellow Jackets.
Pick: Duke -17
Last week in this space, I talked about how I was surprised Miami was catching as many points as they were against Wake Forest. Then, after a good look to win in regulation, got beaten badly in overtime, failing to cover the number. Then they turn around and lay an egg at home against Louisville. Something’s off with them. Cassell will be up for this game against a squad that went to the Final Four last year and Virginia Tech is decent enough to take advantage of a skidding Hurricanes team.
Pick: Virginia Tech -2
Season Total: ATS (2-2-0), O/U (2-6-0), Total (4-8-0)