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ACC Basketball Betting Preview: Virginia, NC State, North Carolina, Clemson

Forecasting this year’s first full seven-game slate of ACC hoops

NCAA Basketball: N.C. State at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Another year and it’s much of the same as last season. Usually I wait until mid-year before I advocate you just doing the opposite of these picks. However after a 1-4 (where outside of one game that missed by 0.5 points, the picks weren’t even close) start to the season, you know where the smart money lies. We’ve got our first full seven game slate of the season, so head over to Draftkings Sportsbook and get yourself a sweat.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Clemson Tigers
KP: Clemson -1, O/U 159
Draftkings: Clemson -3, O/U 158.5

This game opened with a total around 159 and I was hoping it would move up. However, it’s stayed right about there and gone down just a smidge which is ok as I think North Carolina isn't going to be in as many shootouts as years past. They’ll still want to run, but at Clemson, the Tigers will want to slow them down. Clemson tried to run with Miami on Wednesday night and it didn’t work out for them. I think they do a better job at getting their defensive tempo and this game settles in the mid 150s.

Pick: Under 158.5

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Louisville Cardinals
KP: Louisville +8, O/U 144
Draftkings: Louisville +9, O/U 144.5

Pitt should have no issue with the Cardinals, but this game is all about tempo. Louisville won’t do anything to slow down the Panthers, but the Pitt defense will grind an already terrible Cardinal offense to a halt. Add to that, Pitt takes about 44% of their attempts from deep and Louisville actually defends the three pretty well. That could just be because their two-point defense is so terrible, but regardless it should be enough to keep the total under.

Pick: Under 144.5

Virginia Cavaliers @ NC State Wolfpack
KP: NC State -1, O/U 127
Draftkings: NC State -1.5, O/U 127.5

As a UVA fan, I’m product of the early 2000’s, so I have more then enough scar tissue to know a trip to Raleigh doesn’t end up well. And while Tony Bennett has done a lot to change those fortunes, I just don’t see the Hoos sneaking out of there with a win. Especially with the Wolfpack only scoring 54 points on Wednesday night. I totally expect them to go 12-18 from three and blitz the Virginia defense for 70+ points.

Pick: NC State -1.5

Miami Hurricanes @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons
KP: Wake Forest -4, O/U 160
Draftkings: Wake Forest -3.5, O/U 159.5

Am I missing something with this Miami team? Wednesday night, I got them +1 at home against Clemson as they cruised to a 95-82 win. Now they’re getting almost four against a good, not great Wake Forest team. Nijel Pack missed a couple games, but was back against Clemson and we’ll keep an eye on Wooga Poplar’s status (he missed the Clemson game). But this is still one of the best teams in the ACC and I expect them to be able to take care of a Demon Deacon team, even on the road.

Pick: Miami +3.5

Boston College Eagles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
KP: Georgia Tech -1; O/U 147
Draftkings: Georgia Tech -2, O/U 146

It seems like all the Eagles are doing lately is scoring in the 80’s, however ACC games are a different beast. Georgia Tech will play a mid-tempo game while BC will slow down on defense but hit the gas on offense. However, Georgia Tech excels on the defensive glass and if they can minimize the Eagles second chance points those quick possessions could come up empty. If this game goes over, it goes way over, but think the play is on the under.

Pick: Under 146

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Florida State Seminoles
KP: Florida State +1; O/U 145
Draftkings: Florida State +1, O/U 144

There’s really no rationale to this pick. VaTech should win. Their only losses this year have come against really good competition and the Seminoles just dropped a game to Lipscomb. Yes, Lipscomb. That said, the line reflects that and while I don’t think Florida State is good, it’s hard to win on the road in the ACC and I see Florida State eeking out the home win.

Pick: Florida State +1

Duke Blue Devils @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
KP: Notre Dame +14; O/U 134
Draftkings: Notre Dame +14.5, O/U 133.5

In last week’s write up, when I mentioned Notre Dame was shooting 26% from three, I should have known they’d nail 11 against the Hoos. I’m actually surprised they only shot 47% as it seemed like they hit every single one they took. Of course they’d come back and only score 52 in a loss to NC State. Duke is doing Duke things and I expect them to score at least 75 every time out. I’m going to pick the under in their games more often than not this season, but here, I like the over.

Pick: Over 133.5

Season Total: ATS (0-1-0), O/U (1-3-0), Total (1-4-0)