Things were looking bleak with my record standing at a miserable 9-17, but a 5-1-1 week has the betting preview just four game under .500 and looking to get into the black. I hear there’s a big game or something on Sunday, so how about we pad the bankroll with a little ACC Basketball action.
It’s a homecoming for Clemson guard Joe Girard. He’ll feel comfortable shooting in the dome, but I don’t see this game getting out of hand. Clemson profiles as a team with an efficient offense and deliberate defense. Syracuse will try to push the pace, but will struggle against a good Tiger defense. I’ve been learning this year that you know very early which way a Syracuse total is going. So while the under is the play here, don’t be shocked if it goes way over the number.
Pick: Under 153
I think the bookmakers have nailed this line. Both the spread and total look right, so it all comes down to Boston College. If the Eagles are able to hang through the first 30-35 minutes, I think this game goes over. But if Duke get’s their way on defense (which I think they will), they score in the upper 70’s and keep this total under.
Pick: Under 148
As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’ve found a pattern to North Carolina totals. Facing a team with a slower defensive tempo, take the under. If a team will let the Heel’s run, take the over. Well, this matchup has me TERRIFIED. The flow chart points to the under with Miami rating 292nd in the country in defensive tempo. In years past, this matchup would give us a total in the 160’s and even then the game would likely go over. But I’m going to stick to the trend and go with another under.
Pick: Under 158
When these two got together almost a month ago, NC State was able to pick up the win in Raleigh in a game that got fairly chippy. The Demon Deacons have been really good at home, going undefeated on the year. They’re likely to win, but eight is just too many points. I just don’t see this NC State team getting blown out.
Pick: NC State +8
In conference this season, the Fighting Irish have really struggled to score. They’ve scored more than 61 points in the ACC at home just once on the year and that came in their outlier performance against our Hoos. Virginia Tech should come away with the win, but I don’t love laying the points on the road. They’ll be happy to slow the game down as well and this game, despite a fairly low total, should stay in the 60s and under the total.
Pick: Under 129.5
Are we really laying points with Louisville? No, no we’re not. While the Cardinals only need to win to cover, I just can’t do it. They’ve ramped up their offense lately, but the defense is still a sieve. If Louisville keeps up the scoring barrage, they certainly can win, but I’m going to bank on that not continuing. They’ll let the Yellow Jackets get theirs and pick up a road win in the process.
Pick: Georgia Tech +1
While the Hoos have played themselves off the bubble as of late, the margin for error is still razor thin. The ACC is doing the team no favors as the chances for quality wins is few and far between. Despite having nine conference wins, only one of those has been a Quad 1 win. They get another chance today. It’s going to be a close game and I just can’t lay the points with the Hoos due to their woes at the free throw line. So, I’m going to look at the total. While the defense has cranked up in the winning streak, they’re still giving up a decent amount of points on the road. This game doesn’t have to be frenetic, but given I think it’s it’s close, we see a similar pace and outcome to last week’s win at Clemson.
Pick: Over 129
Season Total: ATS (6-7-1), O/U (8-11-0), Total (14-18-1)