Previewing UVA baseball’s super regional vs Kansas State

The Virginia Cavaliers are back to where they were just a year ago, hosting a super regional with a chance to go to Omaha for the third time in four seasons. Starting Friday, they will be playing a best-of-three series against Kansas State, who, on the other hand, is not used to being in this position. The three-seed out of the Fayetteville regional will be looking to get to the College World Series for the first time in program history.

Per UVA Twitter’s unofficial statistician Danny Neckel, this will be the first time the ‘Hoos and Wildcats meet in football, men’s basketball, or baseball. A little surprising for two schools that have been in their respective power conferences for a while, but it’s cause for that much more excitement.

Any betting platform or predictive model is likely to heavily favor the Cavaliers in this series and it is easy to see why. For starters, Kansas State was not all that impressive in the Big 12. They were just .500 in conference and 32-24 overall. They are just eighth in the Big 12 in team ERA (5.35), seventh in on base percentage (.379), and tenth in slugging (.432). That said, they swept through the regional rounds, and there is something to be said about that. Virginia fans know better than anyone not to sleep on a hot three seed in the postseason.

The biggest strength of the Wildcats is their one-two punch of starting pitchers Owen Boerema and Jackson Wentworth. They duo has combined for 225 strikeouts this season and when the ball is put in play against them, it is usually a ground ball.

Boerema is particularly vulnerable to the walk, which was especially evident when he allowed six free passes in the regional opener against Louisiana Tech. In fact, by essentially every metric, Wentworth is the superior arm but the southpaw will most likely get the nod in Friday’s contest.

Regardless, the Wildcats will throw two different starters at UVA, who each have the stuff to compete with their high octane lineup. It will be interesting to see what Virginia’s approach will be: whether they attack a guy like Wentworth early in counts before he can get ahead or try to work the pitch count and force the Wildcats tip their hand.

If a game three happens, things will get more interesting. No particular third starter has stood out this year for Kansas State. It may just be a bullpen game or a situation where they ride the hot hand. They do have two standout relievers in LHP Cole Wisenbaker and RHP Tyson Neighbors. Both average multiple innings per outing and Neighbors is a legitimate MLB Draft prospect.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats pitching staff controls the run game well, having allowed the second fewest stolen bases in the conference. That is a competitive advantage the ‘Hoos typically have which will be neutralized in this series.

The lineup for Kansas State is top heavy and not particularly daunting overall. They do have a projected first round pick in shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, who leads the team in both batting average (.329) and home runs (tied with 11). Opposite Griff O’Ferrall, Culpepper is another great athlete in the field with an incredible arm.

Aside from Culpepper, keep an eye out for second baseman Brady Day and center fielder Brendan Jones. Jones will typically bat leadoff, with Culpepper in the three hole followed by Day.

The problem, however, is depth. In terms of wRC+, an all-encompassing hitting stat that measures each player compared to the D1 average at 100, the aforementioned trio each place above 120. Otherwise, the entire rest of the lineup has a wRC+ below 100, per D1Baseball.

Of course, the string of great UVA pitching in the Charlottesville regional is fresh on our minds. If that sustains, the Cavaliers should certainly have their way in this series.

We also have to consider the staff’s full body of work this year, which is far from encouraging. In the same sense that Kansas State does not have a lineup full of guys that will get on base, Virginia is not loaded with reliable arms. If that concern comes into fruition, this super regional will be a fight.

In the event of a slugfest though, Virginia is much better equipped to keep pouring on the runs than Kansas State. Having nine guys plus a couple bench pieces that are merely interchangeable from a statistical perspective is much more than Kansas State can say.

First pitch on Friday will be at 7 pm. If you are fortunate enough to make it to the Dish this weekend, let’s bring the energy and rally the squad back to the promised land 1186 miles away