With Selection Sunday under a month away, the Virginia Cavaliers are in a similar situation as that of the past two seasons: right on the edge of an NCAA Tournament 1-seed.
In Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, UVA jumps UNC, who fell to Duke last night, to pick up the last 1-seed in the South region. (Villanova, Kansas, and Oklahoma earn top seeds as well):
BracketMatrix.com, which aggregates bracket projections from all over the Internet, gives us a better idea of how things currently stand. Villanova is a unanimous one-seed in the 94 brackets analyzed, and Kansas and Oklahoma both show up as top-seeds in over 90%. UVA edges out Iowa, North Carolina, and Xavier for the last spot - but results from last night, which included losses by the Hawkyes and Tar Heels, are not yet integrated.
Attempting to predict how things will shake out is near-impossible. The situation is fluid, especially once conference tournaments begin and most teams, by definition, will add another loss. However, the Wildcats are as close to a #1 lock as this wild season will allow, with a manageable schedule to end the year, save a road game at Xavier. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Virginia will all endure multiple tough tests in the regular and postseason before Selection Sunday.
TeamRankings.com incorporates projected results for the remainder of the season to predict seeding. It assigns UVA a 34% chance of a 1 seed, 31% of a 2 seed, 19% of a 3 seed, and 16% of falling below that. (Last night's losses by Iowa and UNC increased Virginia's one-seed odds by 2%.)
Team Rankings also gives UVA a 65% probability and reaching the Sweet 16, 22% of a Final Four appearance, and a 6.4% chance of a National Title.