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With conference tournaments kicking off in earnest today (sorry, Ivy League), it’s time to take a look at the latest and greatest with STL Bracketology.
Midwest and East Regionals
| Midwest Regional | East Regional |
|---|---|
| Midwest Regional | East Regional |
| 1. Kansas (1) | 1. Dayton (4) |
| 16. Norfolk State / Siena | 16. Winthrop |
| 9. Wichita St. | 9. LSU |
| 8. Colorado | 8. Oklahoma |
| 5. Louisville | 5. Michigan |
| 12. Louisiana Tech | 12. Yale |
| 13. Northern Colorado | 13. New Mexico State |
| 4. Ohio St. | 4. Kentucky |
| 3. Florida St. | 3. Maryland |
| 14. Bradley | 14. Texas State |
| 11. Xavier | 11. Richmond / Stanford |
| 6. Iowa | 6. Virginia |
| 7. Illinois | 7. BYU |
| 10. Arizona | 10. Indiana |
| 15. Belmont | 15. North Dakota State |
| 2. Creighton | 2. Villanova |
South and West Regionals
| South Regional | West Regional |
|---|---|
| South Regional | West Regional |
| 1. Baylor (2) | 1. Gonzaga (3) |
| 16. Northern Kentucky | 16. Prairie View A&M / Saint Francis (PA) |
| 9. Providence | 9. USC |
| 8. Saint Mary's | 8. Rutgers |
| 5. Wisconsin | 5. West Virginia |
| 12. Utah St. | 12. Vermont |
| 13. Liberty | 13. Akron |
| 4. Butler | 4. Oregon |
| 3. Duke | 3. Seton Hall |
| 14. UC Irvine | 14. Stephen F. Austin |
| 11. Texas / Arizona St. | 11. East Tennessee St. |
| 6. Auburn | 6. Penn St. |
| 7. Marquette | 7. Houston |
| 10. Florida | 10. Texas Tech |
| 15. Hofstra | 15. Colgate |
| 2. Michigan St. | 2. San Diego St. |
Last Four Byes: Florida, Texas Tech, Indiana, Xavier
Last Four In: Stanford, Arizona State, Richmond, Texas
First Four Out: Purdue, Cincinnati, Memphis, NC State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Saint Louis, Arkansas, Rhode Island
Bracket Thoughts:
The Last Number One: The race for the final top seed remains a revolving door. San Diego State would have wrapped it up with a win in the Mountain West Championship. Now the Aztecs will sweat out the Flyers who have the first crack at it. However, keep an eye out for a major conference champion who looks good in their title run. Reminiscent of 2014 when the Hoos rode an ACC Tournament Title to a 5-6 spot jump over the final weekend, a team like Villanova, Michigan State, or Florida State could rise with a great weekend and some help.
UVA’s Rise: In just a little over two weeks, the Virginia Cavaliers have risen quite a bit in these rankings. Moving from a 10 seed to a 6 seed, the Hoos have gone from not in, to bubble team, to “hoping to dodge an 8/9 game,” to a favored seed in a very short time. Winning eight games in a row will do that for a squad this time of year. While I’ve seen the Hoos as a seven seed in a lot of spots, it’s their computer metrics that actually bring them down. I don’t believe the Committee uses the straight number as much as we’d like to believe, so I think they’ll look at the Hoos and see a six seed, if not a five depending on how things shake out in Greensboro.
Bid Stealers: Given the teams on the bubble and those who are safely in the field, this year’s tournament might feature the fewest number of bid stealers than any other year I can remember. Unless something crazy happens in the big leagues (looking at you North Carolina), the only tournaments with potential bid thieves are the American and A-10. In the American, Houston and Wichita State look safe while Dayton and Richmond (last four in) are currently in the field from the A-10. Bubble teams will be watching Richmond closely, as they likely need a semifinal, if not a finals appearance to feel good come Sunday.